Updating bayesian priors

Posted by / 12-Jun-2017 00:02

Updating bayesian priors

If we can't put a number to Han's 'badass' then our analysis is broken, not just because Han makes it (we have p-values to blame for that), but because we believe he's going to.Statistics is a tool to aid and organize our reasoning and beliefs about the world.

We can assume then that he has actual data to back up his claim of 'approximately 3,720 to 1'.We have a prior belief that Han will survive the asteroid field.The prior probability is something that is very controversial for people outside of Bayesian analysis.First my beliefs are very approximate, so I'm okay with the true rate of survival being variable.Second, it makes calculations we need to do later much easier.

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Clearly Han believes it's dangerous, ' They'd have to be crazy to follow us.' None of the pursuing tie fighters make it through, which provides pretty strong evidence that C3PO's numbers are not off. What's missing is that we know Han is a badass!